I know, you come to us here at Modern Liberals for a lot of things, but probably none of them are confronting a truth like this one: Donald Trump, or Ted Cruz, could be our president this time next year.

Mind you, it’s pretty highly unlikely because polling and the past two presidential elections show us that the GOP has a huge Electoral College disadvantage going into Election Day this coming November. But let’s face it — this country has a habit of every so often electing absolutely horrible people. And while I am sure fellow Bernie or Busters like me will be blamed for it, hold them horses pal.

These five reasons are why it won’t be Bernie or Busters who cost the Dems the White House. Let me know what you think of my reasoning. Keep in mind though, I’m not predicting any of this will come true; I’m just seeing warning signs and I think it’s okay to point them out.

#5. The DNC is tone deaf.

This is a populist election. The DNC’s candidate has routinely acted as if reigning in Wall Street is important, but not as important as bombing the Middle East. Their candidate has spoken to Goldman Sachs for more money than most people make in half a decade for one speech. Bernie or Bust is one thing, but take Sanders out of the equation for a hot minute and you’re still left with a politician who looks and feels like a politician at a time when that’s clearly not what the masses want. And we can be as elitist we want to about it, but the simple fact is that if enough people want to put a fucking ice cream sandwich in the White House, that will happen, provided the ice cream sandwich is at least 35, was born here, and has lived here for at least 14 years.

I just hope for the country’s sake that the DNC’s refusal to go with a populist candidate in a populist election year doesn’t leave everyone with a Trump-sized hangover the day after the election.

#4. Hillary and her supporters don’t seem to understand how important independent voters will be this year

I can’t stress this enough — independent voters are backing Sanders more than Clinton. You may not think that matters in a primary, because you’re crowing about closed primary results putting Hillary up by so much. But let’s be real — in the states where unattached voters could have a say, Bernie cleaned Hillary’s clock. Those three million independent New York voters who didn’t get to participate? They might just take it out on the Dems. Maybe they can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump, but they could just decide to punish the DNC by staying home. In New York it won’t matter so much. But in Ohio? Pennsylvania? Virginia? Colorado? Don’t be so smugly confident.

#3. Americans make notoriously stupid electoral decisions

George W. Bush, ever heard of him? I know for a fact there will be comments on this one telling me that as a Bernie or Bust guy I’m being super-ironic about Dubya, because “Nader.” But it has never been proven conclusively that Nader helped Bush steal Florida. But I do know that Gore not winning his home stuck fucked up. So did the Supreme Court being stacked conservatively after 12 years of Reagan and Bush Sr. The way I see it, this country is almost “due” for a WTF election result. I love Canada, but I don’t want to move there, so I hope Cruz or Trump don’t win, but the simple truth is that a lot of people like to “vote for the other party” after eight years of one side’s reign, so I’m just saying to buckle the fuck up is all.

#2. Independents were completely shit on by the DNC

Yes, this is two items in the same listicle about kind of the same thing. But the Democratic National Committee seemed to almost go out of its way to shit on independent voters with all its closed primaries and the ridiculously early registration voting deadlines. In New York, you would have had to change your registration six months before your primary to vote for Sanders if you weren’t already a Dem. I know to hardcore, “Rah rah” Democrat types this is something to revel in. But chasing off independents is the first step toward making your party die. Independents bring fresh blood and revitalized voters.

Just stop and think — if the DNC had embraced Sanders instead of tried to push him the sidelines as quickly as possible, they’d have how many more millions of new voters registered as Democrats? Those Sanders supporters are still donating to his cause when many of them have figured out the game’s very likely over for him. And the DNC did its level best to give all their energy and excitement a giant “meh.” Maybe that will haunt them in November, and maybe it won’t. Who knows? But if it does, and they stay home, even the terrible-ass Republicans could have a shot at winning this thing.

#1. Hillary Clinton will probably win

The biggest reason a Republican might end up in the White House actually has nothing to do with Republicans at all. At least not registered ones. Hillary Clinton on defense? Is a Goldwater Republican. Her admiration of Kissinger proves it. Hillary Clinton on Wall Street reform? “Eh, we’ll get to it, if I feel like getting to it.” So, pretty much a 1990’s era Republican there. She’s a Republican, guys. Or I should say she’s so similar to Republicans circa 1985 that I have a tremendously hard time figuring how substantial the difference between her presidency and a Republican presidency would be, outside of not trying to roll back Roe Vs. Wade and such. No, she’s not exactly like the Republicans are, but when you look at the policies she openly supports versus what the progressive base of the party allegedly wants, she’s not always “there.” So in that regard, it seems like one way or another, we’re getting a Republican for our next president.


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