Yes, I Think Bernie Can Still Win. No, I’m Not in Denial.

Bernie Sanders can't win? The fak outta here with that.

Am I the only one seeing people on social media imply Bernie Sanders supporters are in denial about how far ahead Hillary Clinton is in the Democratic Primary?

It’s strange to me, because if you take the superdelegates out of the mix — since their allegiance is only given to the presumed front-runner until the convention — Hillary is most certainly ahead and has definitely beaten Bernie pretty well in some states, that’s true…But if you unravel things, and pull on the threads of the “Hillary Shall Be Madam President Hurrah!” story line, I’m not sure you will buy into all of it.

For starters, I wonder if some of those who call all of us naive were hearing this kind of stuff from Obama supporters after Super Tuesday in 2008. Because at that point, it was Hillary who was down and presumed out. Then she surged, and she didn’t end up dropping out of the primaries until June of that year. So I guess that means she was in denial for four months? Or was it, mayyyyyyyyyyyyyyybe just perchance more likely that she still was in it?

If you look at the fact that she won the popular vote count that year (discounting caucuses that don’t count raw votes), one might understand why she’d stay in the race. The popular vote count in this year’s race is close enough to where one might see why Sanders has every right to stick around. If you ask me, I think it’s probably more a case that Hillary’s people are in denial that Bernie poses any threat to their campaign at all.

Here’s a map of 2008’s primary state victories for Obama (purple) and Clinton (gold).
2008prim
2008prim

 

 

Here’s a map of the primary wins so far. Hillary is gold again, Bernie is green now.

2016Prim

As you can see, Hillary is off to pretty much the same start she had in 2008. She’s won many of the same states she did that year, and even picked up a state or two (like South Carolina) that she lost last time.  But you know what else can’t be disputed? Bernie has won some states too. In fact, Bernie stole Oklahoma out of Hillary’s 2008 cache, and if you want to be really analytical about it — and as  comedian why the fuck would I not wanna be analytical about something, Barack Obama lost Massachusetts, Nevada, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas.

Just like Bernie has.

Look at all that gray in this year’s map too. You bet your ass Hillary’s going to paint a lot more gold into it, but what if we gave her the same states she carried in 2008 and gave Sanders the rest of what Obama carried in 2008? What would the map look like then?

2016primposs


That’s a whole lot of green, isn’t it?

Now, admittedly this is an image that completely ignores current polling, so there’s a chance that the map up will be all Clinton Gold as the convention rolls around. If Sanders could pick off a state like Oklahoma or Colorado, though, is it really such a stretch that young millennials in Utah could pull that state over to Sanders’ column? How about those granola eating Commies up in Washington and Oregon? You think they’re all-in for the establishment candidate, or is there even a remote chance a guy like Bernie could convince them to feel his heat?

But let’s be real — the deck is stacked way high against Bernie. Then again, it was stacked against a junior Senator with an abundance of melanin that many presumed would be lethal to his chances of being elected in these post-racial United States, too, right? So maybe…just maybe…none of us know what in the holy living fuck is going to happen, or as my own personal spiritual guru puts it:

“Difficult to see. Always in motion, is the future.” — Yoda

Yes, I think Bernie Sanders can win. No, I’m not in denial. Are you?

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