“FEEL THE MATH, BERNBOTS!”
How many of you out there have seen a comment like that one on Facebook or other social media sites lately? I have. A lot. In fact, any time I write something supportive of Bernie, I get told to feel the math. Any time I point out, for instance, that Hillary is high unfavorable ratings, and that her email scandal doesn’t need to result in an indictment for it to cost her and the Dems the election, I get told to feel that math. Well, guess what, Hillary Sycophants? You all need some help with arithmetic yourself, and a good dose of reality.
For starters — Hillary’s not the nominee yet. She very likely will be, and even this Sanders supporter — who is “Bernie or Bust” in California — knows that. But you lot acting like it’s already over is like a team half-assing it the last inning and a half because they think they have an insurmountable lead. Even if you do, it makes you look silly to whine about, for instance, a debate between Trump and Sanders when a) Hillary could have simply not backed out of the one she promised to have with Bernie earlier this year and b) she’s not the nominee and c) it’ll be 90 minutes of Sanders presenting rather cogently the argument for a progressive agenda, something Clinton allegedly believes in (this week) herself.
But setting aside the simple fact that Hillary hasn’t in fact sewn it up yet, Hillary Hawks should do themselves a favor and just pipe down until after it actually is official because the reality is without the vaunted superdelegates, chances are Hillary would fall well short of the delegate threshold herself. In fact, a piece on Politico today spelled it out pretty easily.
With superdelegates in her current total of 2,305, Clinton is less than 100 away from the 2,383 threshold, but take away the superdelegates and she is 615 short – which presents a bigger hurdle to climb. (Source)
The point the article makes is a pretty simple one. Without the support of the superdelegates, Clinton would be facing a contested convention. Why? Because of how the Democrats divvy up the delegates proportionately, that’s why. So the same astronomical math that represents Sanders’ chance to overtake Clinton is the same kind of math that dictates without superdelegates, Hillary would need a huge number of the remaining delegates to win.
Or as Politico put it:
The former secretary of state would need an enormous share of the almost 800 remaining pledged delegates to clinch the nomination without superdelegate support. Democrats allocate delegates proportionally, so she would need roughly three-quarters of the votes cast in the remaining contests. (Source)
I’m not sure at this point how anyone could deny that superdelegates will end up making the difference in this year’s Democratic nomination. It’s been pretty obvious all along that both Clinton and Sanders have huge numbers of supporters. You can’t look at a Bernie rally and not see that. And before you say anything, yes those rally attendees have not been equating to a ballot box, popular vote count lead for him, and that is a big reason why Hillary is likely going to take the nomination.
But if we pretend that superdelegates weren’t in the mix, you would still have Hillary marching toward the nomination, that much cannot be denied by the Sanders crew. She has that aforementioned popular vote count in her favor, after all. The point I’ve been trying to make the last couple weeks, though, is that the narrative Hillary die-hards are spinning that she’s somehow overwhelmingly the choice of the Democrats is poppycock, or bullshit if you’re into words we can use since we’re adults. It really does anger me to see Hillary supporters act as if there aren’t literally millions of people who don’t want Hillary, and are every bit as important as the Hillary voters are. It bewilders me that so many people aren’t just supporting her, but are making it seem like those of us who don’t are the problems, instead of her inconsistent and nakedly political agenda being the problem.
I just want the truth to be represented, and the truth is that thanks to how the Dems have let their primaries be run, we may never know exactly who holds the lion’s share of support from America’s allegedly left-leaning political party, and to pretend otherwise is fantasy.
Clinton will very likely get the nomination. But she’ll need those superdelegates. What this proves isn’t that she’s unpopular, or that more people want Bernie than her. What it proves is that Hillary and her team are ignoring a blind spot they have. She is not as popular outside her devotees as Obama was, or Sanders is. That could end up being meaningless of indeed the mere thought of President Donald J. Trump does indeed push people to choose Clinton simply to avoid that nightmare. But if it doesn’t, if in fact the independents that the Dems clearly decided they didn’t need to court this time around do break for Trump simply to spite the people who they feel aren’t listening anyway…then…well…
…maybe you all condescend your way out of the reality that you did in fact need the Bernie Bots and Bernie Bros that helped you elect Obama, twice, after all. Then again, maybe not.